Solar Cycle 24 Shows Change in Pattern
With the sun changing cycles every 11-years, the last heaviest peaking season was in the 2001 and 2002 during Cycle 23—peaking, not beginning. And this past week, sunspots in Cycle 24 seemed to be showing the signs of the new cycle coming in, but in a different way—causing some concern with scientists, solar experts, and weather observers.
Last April in 2007, NOAA’s Space Environment Center and an international panel of solar experts forecasted last month as the beginning of Cycle 24, peaking in 2011 and 2012 which is approximately a year later than it should be. This caused concern whether or not there would be weak or extra strong periods of non-record-breaking solar storms ahead of us.
Yet last week there seems to be a change in predictions due to the type of sunspots developing. Originally the scientists had estimated that Cycle 24 had originated in 2006, but not it seems the tune may be changed—listing 2007 as its beginning cycle date.
Also, Solar Cycle 24 origin was based on the initial sunspot when reversed polarity appeared but it has a magnetic polarity consistent with that of Solar Cycle 23 instead. Tuesday, March 25, 2008, a moderate solar flare listed as #989 took off, putting the odds at 50-50 for additional solar flares when it was observed. March 27th saw both a GI and G2 March, with March 28th a minor G I electromagnetic field storm.
The GI storms have the ability to affect power systems through weak power grid fluctuations, minor impact on satellite and spacecraft operations, and other systems such as migratory animals and the development of auroras at high latitudes. But G2 storms have a little more to them, but are still not considered severe. The power systems on high-latitudes may experience voltage alarms, in addition to long-duration storms which cause transformer damage. Corrective actions by ground control are required to spacecraft operations at times, with possible changes in drag affecting orbit predictions. Also, HF radio propagation has the possibility of fading at higher latitudes, and auroras can be seen in lower-latitudes such as New York or Idaho or at 55 degrees geomagnetic lat.
Many scientist are predicting Solar Cycle 24 has the ability to be intense, kicking off to a very warm spring which can cause very violent weather. If so, “it could have significant impacts on telecommunications, air traffic, power grids and GPS systems,” according to a NASA statement issued in December.
This entry was posted on Wednesday, April 2nd, 2008 at 1:12 am and is filed under Public Relations. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
